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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	-	2.42	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	-	-	-	1.88	1.52	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.73	3.6	5	1.17	1.25	2	-	-	1.11	6.5	1.57	2.38	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.9% | EV -1.4% | ROI +3.8% | n=410 | k=1.57

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.4% | EV -5.7% | ROI +10.9% | n=410 | k=2.42

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -4.5% | EV -6.8% | ROI -14.5% | n=410 | k=1.52

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -4.9% | EV -11.6% | ROI -19.5% | n=410 | k=2.38

AI-agent: At 18 minutes into the Alaves vs Ath Bilbao match, Alaves leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected in a 36% drop in odds from pre-match levels, but shot data does not confirm clear dominance. Recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data on similar situations supports over 2.5 goals with a 66.1% probability and a positive ROI of 3.8%. However, the current model edge is negative at -0.9%, below the threshold for a confident bet, so no stake is advised now. This is a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry opportunity, and caution is recommended despite the favorable history.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 18